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Being A Technical Analyst

One of the main ways traders approach the market is that of technical analysis. A technical analyst doesn't look at income statements, balance sheets, company policies, or anything fundamental about the company. The technician looks at the actual history of trading and price of a security or index. This is usually done in the form of a chart. The security can be a stock, future, index, currency or a sector. It is flexible enough to work on anything that is traded in the financial markets.
The technical analyst believes that the market price reflects all known information about the individual security. It includes all public and insider information and reflects all the different investor opinions regarding that security.

Just as fundamental analysis looks at the past to help make a decision, technical analysis also incorporates the past to aid in the decision making process. However, the technical analyst believes that securities move in trends and these trends continue until something happens to change that trend. With trends, patterns and levels are detectable.

The tools of the technical analyst are indicators, patterns and systems. These tools are applied to charts. Moving averages, support and resistance lines, envelopes, Bollinger bands and momentum are all examples of indicators.

These indicators help tell a story and just as a doctor looks at x-rays to help him make a decision, an analyst looks at charts to help him make a decision.

Many people believe that to buy and hold is the right strategy for owning securities and this is fine in some circumstances. It can also be beneficial to buy and sell the same security many times in a given period.

ABC.inc might be a company you want to own for the long term and that's fine. However, there's nothing wrong with buying at 50, selling at 67 and buying it back at 55. There's also nothing wrong with buying at 50, selling at 67, shorting the security at about 67 then closing your short at 55 and buying it back. In the previous example you have made your money work a little more efficiently. In the case of buying and holding you only make money when the security goes up. Why not make money when the security goes up, comes down, and goes back up again. This way, your money has worked harder for you. Technical analysis can help in predicting turning points and direction in prices.

Before applying technical analysis make sure you thoroughly understand the principals that you are applying. Read as much as you can and find a few forms of technical analysis that you feel comfortable with. Remember you only need to find one thing that works in order to make money.

Good Trading

Article by
Mark McRae
http://www.traderssecretcode.com

Envelopes

We are going to use some basic indicators in a different way to try and get a precise entry into a trade.

What we are going to show here is the use of Envelopes, which form trading bands. The particular trading bands we are going to use will be based on exponential moving averages. This will help us form a method to trade. This is basically an intraday strategy, which works well on the 10min/15min time frame.

Envelopes are used to indicate the trading range of a given market above and below an average price. Basically, moving average envelopes or trading bands are calculated by taking a moving average and calculating upper and lower trading bands as a fixed percentage above and below the moving average respectively.

These are considered to suggest extreme overbought or oversold conditions. The assumption is that, price should not deviate from the average of the underlying price element (high or low) by the percentage utilized.

They differ from Bollinger bands, since Bollinger Bands place boundary lines based on standard deviation, whereas envelopes place lines at fixed percentage points above and below a moving average line. The upper and lower limits specify entry and exit points for traders.

But, instead of using them to indicate overbought or oversold conditions, we will attempt to create a narrow trading range and base the rules for this method on this narrow band. We will keep our settings for the Trading Bands as (40, 0.30)

This means you have a band of two moving averages of 40, with a fixed percentage of 0.30 above and below. We then use another Exponential moving average with a setting of 15. The additional moving average is to help identify when the market is beginning to trend.

The first rule is - do not enter a trade when the price is within the band. A trade is signaled only when the price moves outside the band. The general policy is to go long when the price is above the band, and to go short when the price is below the band.

The second rule is for confirmation - don't trade when the 15 exponential moving average is flat. Only trade when the 15 exponential moving average starts rising or falling in the direction of the trade.

This method keeps you out of the market when there is consolidation, which means more chances of getting whipsawed.

The chart below, clearly shows that price was within the band for the first part of the chart and entering a trade here would have got you whipsawed. As a matter of fact, the EUR/USD was in a major uptrend on the daily charts at this time and this method gave us a precise point to enter the trade on a lower time frame.

The red line is where the market was in consolidation. The market then began to rise slightly and the 15 exponential moving average also began to rise - this is the set up.

Even though the market was set up for a trade, the safe play was to wait for 15 exponential moving average to start to trend and for the price to be well above the bands.

The market then pulled back forming resistance. This resistance area is what we are looking for. A break of the resistance is the final confirmation that we have a high probability trade.

The entry is made on a breach of the previous resistance with an initial stop just below the support area that formed.

Suniiel A Mangwani

Good Trading

Best Regards
Mark McRae

Bollinger Bands Revealed

Bollinger bands are an integral part of just about every charting system I have ever seen but many traders are unfamiliar with how to use them. In this lesson we will cover the basics of Bollinger bands and one particular technique which I have found to be very reliable.

Bollinger Band History

Bollinger Bands were invented by John Bollinger as a means of determining what could be considered as high or low around a give price.

The bands are plotted at a standard deviation (statistical term for measuring volatility) around a moving average. Typically the standard deviation used is 2.

The bands appear on charts as 3 bands.

A simple moving average in the middle. Most charting software defaults to a 20 period moving average.

An upper band calculated around a simple moving average plus 2 standard deviations.

A lower band calculated around a simple moving average minus 2 standard deviations.
For our examples we will use the most common setting of a 20 period simple moving average. This will give us 3 bands, the middle band of a 20 period simple moving average and the upper and lower bands calculated around the middle band with standard deviation of 2. The closing price is most commonly used to calculate the moving average.
Bollinger bands can be used to generate buy and sell signals but that is not their primary use. The main purpose of the bands are to:

To identify areas of high and low volatility
To identify periods when prices are at an extreme and possibly ready for a reversal.
To identify a trending market.

The squeeze (tightening) is a period of low volatility and often happens before a big move. It can also help identify potential breakout areas.

Reversal
In conjunction with other indicators you can identify potential reversal points.Trending Following
Although Bollinger bands will not tell you when the trend has started if you combine it with certain indicators they will confirm the trend. It is also easily identifiable visually.My Use Of Bollinger Bands

As I mentioned earlier Bollinger bands are not really meant to be used as a signal generating indicator but in conjunction with another indictors can be very useful.

I like to use Bollinger bands and RSI together to generate possible buy and sell signals or to confirm overbought or oversold areas.
I normally set the RSI at 14 and when it reads over 70 and price is at or pushing through the upper band then I know we are overbought and ready for a reversal. I will either start thinking about shorting the market or if I am already in a long position will start to cover.

When the RSI reads below 30 and price is touching or pushing through the lower band then I know we are oversold and I will either consider buying the market or close existing short positions.

Experiment with the settings until you find the right parameters for the market you are trading. I have found the bands to be effective on all time frames from 5 minutes to monthly bars.

Good Trading

Best Regards
Mark McRae

www.traderssecretcode.com

Too Many Strategies, But Still Frustrated?

It is not too long ago when veteran traders used to draw trend lines using pencil and paper. Market data was sent by physical mail to them and there was no computer and trading desk. Were they really not able to perform by not using super analytical charting platforms? Were they all losers?

I bet they were not only doing great, but compared to my fellow traders (Including me) they were absolutely sophisticated traders. I don't want to undermine anyone as we have many legend traders and hundreds of good traders who actually make money around the globe on daily basis.

My argument is merely pointed at those traders who think that broken accounts is a result of them not really having the best strategy to trade in a safe and secure manner while at the same time having a one year outlook for reaching 1 million dollar, through a 10000 buck trading account.

Where a trading strategy is introduced as a reliable method of making money for traders, there are some questions that must be asked, to evaluate the accuracy of the given strategy:

• Is it a trend or a range market based strategy?
• If it works as a trend based strategy, what can the strategy offer to trade around range markets, and vice versa for the range market based strategy?
• Is it a day trading strategy or planned to signal longer term trading signals?
• If it is an Intraday trading strategy, how many hours are required and when exactly should I sit down and watch the screen?
• If it is a long term strategy, what is the estimated possible drawdown in pips?
• Is there any historical performance of trading using the given strategy in real accounts and if the answer is "YES" for how long? (don't rely on less than one year)
• Are there any money & risk management rules attached that are specifically tested on this particular strategy?
• What is the average/highest/lowest risk to award ratio of the last year's trades?
• Is there anyone who has used the strategy on a real account? (Be aware of marketing tactics and ask someone who is honest).
• What is the outcome of the trades for the above mentioned trader? Even if positive, don't necessarily trust that exact approach for yourself, because one cannot fit a common strategy with the same characteristics to every trader. In this case you need to test it yourself.
• Ask the developer about the psychological pressures that may come upon you while using that strategy on real accounts (We recommend to ask your mentor to analyze the strategy)
• Does it have an Exit and Stop Loss rule for different market situations?
• Ask the developer if you can get back to him occasionally to ask questions about some points that you don't really understand (don't make it 100 times a week cause he/she won't sell any strategy to you).

However, I know a couple of guys who experienced real damage and disappointment where they tried to believe the strategy given to them from the first day. So I am being serious when I say don't ever try to apply a new strategy on your real account, unless you have met an expert and he has given you the green light, or if you have just passed one year of continuous testing.

Final Words:

You may ask for how long? One year… it's too much…I can't wait…!! Well then you can try it, but count on it as a gamble…You know the gamble…Too many jack pots, nothing Hot Shots.

Let science make you wealthy step by step. Don't ever think you are smarter than any other trader because no one knows what is going to happen next. So it's better to be next to those wise traders who win, because they are disciplined and have spent a long time practicing before doing anything real on their money. Try to admit it if you are not sure enough about your ability, and try to solve the problems with patience and remember it is worth it if you make that million dollars three or even five years later, instead of losing what you got from hard work within just a couple of days.

Also, not to forget, forward any questions you might have on this article to my email address s.a.ghafari@iftc.ir and I will try to respond as soon as possible.

S.A Ghafari
FX Analyst
s.a.ghafari@iftc.ir
http://www.iftc.ir

The Properties Of Price Movement

You might look at the stock prices at the bottom of your television screen or, if you are trading currencies in the forex market, you might look at the exchange rates go up and down your computer screen.

Prices move and you wonder whether their behaviour means something. Could the market be sending out signals that you can use to make your decisions? How, exactly, are you going to study the market?

For anybody to make money from the market, they must have a way of studying it. There are predominantly two approaches: fundamental and technical.

Fundamental analysis focuses on value but this is the subject of another article. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on price and its movement.

The movement of price has the following properties which traders can study to aid in their decisions:

1. Trend - its persistence to move in one direction,

2. Volatility - the magnitude of its fluctuations on a periodic basis,

3. Momentum - the rate of its acceleration and deceleration,

4. Cycle - its tendency to move in cyclical patterns, most especially in the futures market,

5. Market Strength - the number of transactions supporting its movements,

6. Support and Resistance - its tendency to rise or fall to a certain level and then reverse, repeatedly.

Analysts, using the technical approach of analysing the markets, have developed their own set of indicators, different to those used by fundamental analysts. These indicators are used to measure the properties of price movement.

Fortunately for modern-day traders like you, you do not have to devise your own tools. You just need to learn how they work and how to use them.

About The Author:

Marquez Comelab is the author of the book: The Part-Time Currency Trader. It is a guide for men and women interested in trading currencies in the forex market. Discusses analysis, tools, indicators, trading systems, strategies, discipline and psychology. See: http://marquezcomelab.com

FOREX: Exiting positions at a right time

The presented article covers one of the most important (in author's opinion) aspects of trading in general and Forex trading in particular - managing of orders and positions. This includes choosing entry points, making decisions about exit points, stop-loss and take-profit of the trader. I hope this article will help new traders, who just began to work with Forex, and also to experienced traders who trade regularly and regularly make or loose their money to the market.

When I started to trade Forex and made my first big losses and profits I began to notice when very important thing about the whole trading process. While the right time to enter a position was rarely a problem for myself (nearly 80% of all my open positions had gone into the "green" profit zone), the problem was hidden in the determining the right exit point for that position. Not only was it important to cut my risk on the potential losses with stop-loss orders, but to limit my greediness and take profit when I can take it and make it as high as I can.

There are many known guidelines and ways to enter a right position at a right time - like major economic news releases, global world events, technical indicators combinations, etc. But while the entering into a position is optional and trade can decide to miss as many good/bad entry point moments as they wish, this is untrue if we talk about exiting a position. Margin trading makes it impossible to wait too long with an open position. More than that, every open position in a certain way limits trader's ability to trade.

Choosing the good exit points for positions could be an easy task if only the Forex market wasn't so chaotic and volatile. In my opinion (backed by my trading experience) exit orders for every position should be toggled constantly with time and as the new market data (technical and fundamental) appear.

Let's say, you took a short position on EUR/USD at 1.2563, at the time you are taking this position the support/resistance level is 1.2500/1.2620. You set your stop-loss order to 1.2625 and your take-profit order to 1.2505. So now, this position can be considered as an intraday or 2-3 days term position.

This means that you must close it before it's "term" is over, or it will become a very unpredictable position (because market will differ greatly from what it was at the time you have entered this position). After the position is taken and initial exit orders are set, you need to follow the market events and technical indicators to adjust your exit orders. The most important rule is to tighten the loss/profit limit as time goes by. Usually if I take a middle term position (2-4 days) I try to lower the stop and target order by 10-25 pips every day.

I also monitor global events, trying to lower my stop-losses when very important news can hurt my position. If the profit is already quite high, I try to move my stop-loss the entry point, making a sure-win position. The main idea here is to find an equilibrium point between greed and caution. But as your position gets older the profit should be more limited and losses cut. Also, trader should always remember that if the market began to act unexpectedly, they need to be even more cautious with exit order, even if the position is still showing profits.

Every trader has their own trading strategy and habits. I hope this article will make its readers think about such an important aspect of trading as the exit orders and this will only improve their trading results.

by Andrey Moraru

http://www.earnforex.com
http://earnforex.blogspot.com